Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 61.9%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète8 févr. 26, 22:03 UTC14 août 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the UK introduce proportional representation for general elections before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the UK have Proportional Representation of the House of Commons by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Reform UK's next published manifesto (after their 2024 manifesto "Our Contract with You") does not include a commitment to proportional representation or a referendum on PR.
- It resolves NO if the manifesto maintains or reaffirms such a commitment.
- Resolution will be determined by examining the official manifesto document published by Reform UK ahead of their next general election campaign.
- The manifesto should be checked against Reform UK's 2024 manifesto, which called for a referendum on PR.
- Reform UK supports electoral reform, favouring a switch to a proportional voting system; in their 2024 manifesto, they called for a referendum on PR.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+3.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 922,6 k €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.6%
- Gavin Newsom14.6%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 191,3 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt89%
- Republican Party-3.0pt11%
- Volume total
- 27,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 627,1 k €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.3pt16%
+48 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt5%
- July0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+4.0pt56.4%
- D-House, R-Senate31.7%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt10.9%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Reform drop their commitment to Proportional Representation in their next manifesto? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 62% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Reform drop their commitment to Proportional Representation in their next manifesto? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Reform drop their commitment to Proportional Representation in their next manifesto? doit être résolu le 14 août 2029.
- Comment Will Reform drop their commitment to Proportional Representation in their next manifesto? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria