Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.1%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète11 oct. 25, 16:59 UTC1 janv. 31, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Prospera breaks ground on an African charter city project before EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill 'Old Vegas' shut down the 51 Alpha prediction markets happy hour?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these AI companies will shut down first?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
Background: "The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory.
- Three groups took them up on the offer and designed various interesting projects.
- In January, Honduras kicked out the right-wing government that passed the ZEDE law and replaced it with a socialist party led by Xiomara Castro, which had made opposition to the ZEDEs part of its platform.
- In April, the new government repealed the ZEDE law, with uncertain consequences." https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-62722
- Update 2025-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if "officially shutting down" occurs through any of the following scenarios:
- Honduran government passing actual laws making ZEDE void, rescinds all special autonomy, and legal regimes (requires constitutional amendment?)
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+0.6pt93%
- Yes-0.6pt7%
- Volume total
- 19,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 210,9 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.0pt80%
- December 15,-4.5pt78%
- November 30,-16.5pt61%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Paramount+16.0pt96.9%
- None before July 2027-16.0pt2.1%
- Netflix-2.0pt1%
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt24.8%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-1.0pt20.8%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt16.8%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt68%
- Before May 1, 2027+6.0pt50%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt46%
+8 résultats de plus
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Florida State vs Alabama
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- LSU vs Ole Miss
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 69% au 19 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Background: "The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory.