Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 91.1%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète14 mars 26, 21:10 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What is the next country to leave European Union:?
Manifold MarketsWill Hungary leave the European Union by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a second member state leave the European Union by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Italy be a member state of the European Union by the start of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Union (EU) block X (Twitter) in 2026?
FutuurWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Poland officially completes its withdrawal from the European Union (per Article 50 of the TEU) before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution requires either a ratified withdrawal agreement or the expiration of the two-year notification period.
- The market resolves to NO if Poland remains a member state through December 31, 2029.
- Market Background: The 2026 Crisis
- While the 2023 elections brought a pro-EU coalition to power under Donald Tusk, the political landscape shifted dramatically following the June 2025 Presidential Election.
