Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète7 mars 24, 03:55 UTC2 janv. 40, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will OpenAI be one of the top 5 most valuable companies before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI be one of the top 10 most valuable public companies in the world at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?
PolymarketAlphabet becomes the most valuable company in the world by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketMicrosoft’s Market Cap end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves yes if OpenAI has a valuation (from a funding round etc.) or market cap greater than Microsoft at any point before Jan. 1st 2040.
- If the corporate structure of either company changes, the question will not necessarily resolve to No. I will lean towards counting any new structures the same as the old ones if they broadly contain similar AI assets/capabilities.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 72% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2040.
- Comment Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves yes if OpenAI has a valuation (from a funding round etc.) or market cap greater than Microsoft at any point before Jan. 1st 2040.