Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.8%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète21 févr. 24, 16:21 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOut of these AI researchers, who is the smartest?
Manifold MarketsWill "You're an AI Expert – Not an Influencer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
Refer to the winners of @/singer/who-are-the-top-10-ai-researchers-a
- This market resolves YES if one of the 10 winners of the above market claim that we are in a "winter" for AI at any time before 2028.
- Here are the names:
- Ilya Sutskever
- Andrej Karpathy
- Yoshua Bengio
