Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 55%
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard22 févr. 24, 08:04 UTC2 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
Manifold MarketsContingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Refer to the winners of @/singer/who-are-the-top-10-ai-researchers-a
- This market resolves YES if one of the 10 winners of the above market claim that we are in a "winter" for AI at any time before 2030.
- Here are the names:
- Ilya Sutskever
- Andrej Karpathy
- Yoshua Bengio
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- 241,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 128 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 349,4 k €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 55% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Refer to the winners of @/singer/who-are-the-top-10-ai-researchers-a