Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.3%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard6 mars 26, 04:46 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the United States pass federal legislation regulating AI in 2026?
Manifold MarketsConditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?
Manifold Markets🏛️ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? 🏛️
Manifold MarketsWhat AI regulations will the US Congress pass into law before January 3, 2027? [ADD ANSWERS]
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if S-7263 passes within 2026.
- Resolves YES if that bill is substantively included in another bill or package that passes this year as well, or if it’s resubmitted under a different number.
- Generally, I will attempt to resolve in the spirit of this question, not the explicit letter of these criteria.
- S-7263 is a bill seeking to regulate AIs giving medical/legal/professional advice, allowing people to sue chatbot owners who violate this ban.
- If S-7263 is substantially amended to the point that it is in my estimation no longer substantively similar to its current form (let’s say, 80% less potent or different from its current form) then this will resolve NO.
- In gray areas, I may resolve to PROB, judging from a consensus of credible reporting and feedback from other Manifold moderators.