Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 51.5%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète22 déc. 25, 18:44 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Jose Luis Ricon get a https://www.generationlab.com/the-systemage-test blood test (Alina Su's) by 2031
Manifold MarketsWill the finding of high WASF3 in ME/CFS (Hwang,PNAS, 2023) be successfully replicated by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Cochrane retract their Review of Exercise Therapy for ME/CFS or publish an updated review (against GET) by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Artificial blood be considered safe and effective for patients in Japan by the end of 2026?
FutuurHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- A blood test developed by the University of East Anglia and Oxford BioDynamics achieved 96% accuracy in diagnosing ME/CFS, published in the Journal of Translational Medicine in October 2025.
- This market resolves YES if a larger replication study demonstrates comparable accuracy (≥80% sensitivity and specificity combined, or ≥85% accuracy) in a cohort of at least 200 participants.
- The study must be published in a peer-reviewed journal or preprint server by December 31, 2030.
- Resolution will be based on the reported accuracy metrics in the published study.
- ME/CFS is a debilitating condition affecting millions worldwide, including over 400,000 in the UK.
Marchés ouverts
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.3pt97%
- Yes+0.3pt3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Volume total
- 83,5 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 864,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- 915,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 k €
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Volume total
- 4,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 52% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria