Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.9%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
21 mai 25, 18:50 UTC16 sept. 26, 18:44 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?
Manifold MarketsHow many hours will I study in September? (10 mana bonus, read description)
Manifold MarketsWhat will JD Vance say during RNC Convention?
KalshiWhat will JD Vance say during RNC Convention?
PolymarketWho will win the 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio (to fill JD Vance's seat)?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if by a year after the current release date (Sep 16, 2026), JD Vance has mentioned reading (even part of) the new book "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies."
- Also resolves YES if some event occurs that strongly implies that he has read it (he has a meeting with the author, or a copy of the book is photographed on his desk with a bookmark, or Usha Vance says he has read it, or whatever).
- That is to say, it doesn't have to be an official declaration from his mouth.
- This market inspired by his recent remarks in an interview with the NYTimes that he had read AI-2027.
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/opinion/jd-vance-pope-trump-immigration.html
- Here is book information: https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/?ref=nsxmay