Will JD Vance integrate rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028?
One-OffPolitique américainePolitiqueIA1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 68.7%En tête parmi 3 options
Non 68.7%Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète9 nov. 24, 15:37 UTC17 janv. 28, 06:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market assesses the likelihood that JD Vance will play a meaningful role in helping individuals associated with rationalist blogging, 𝕏, or similar intellectual communities attain formal influence within high levels of U.S. government or policy-making circles by 2028.
- Terms for the Market
- Notable Integration:
- Integration requires rationalist bloggers to gain substantial influence in official roles, formal advisory capacities, or have recognized policy impact facilitated by JD Vance’s direct involvement or endorsement.
- Casual acknowledgments or public discussions do not meet this threshold.
- Qualifying Political Figure:
