Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74.1%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète8 mai 26, 20:02 UTC30 juin 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Manifold MarketsWhere will Waymo operate in 2026?
KalshiWhere will Waymo be available in 2026?
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KalshiWhat will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description)
Manifold MarketsRègles
A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).
- Resolves YES if, in calendar year 2030, traffic fatalities have NOT declined relative to each city's pre-commercial-launch baseline year in any of the 5 largest Waymo deployment cities.
- Resolves NO if at least one such city shows a decline relative to its pre-Waymo baseline.
- The 5 cities (locked in at market creation): Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta.
- Pre-commercial-launch baseline year: the full calendar year before paid public Waymo service began in that city.
- Resolution source: NHTSA FARS data, CY2030 vs each city's baseline year.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? doit être résolu le 30 juin 2032.
- Comment Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).