Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 14 juil. 2026, 21:10 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Prévision communautaire actuelleMiami 100%En tête parmi 19 options
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 jours
Obsolète1 déc. 25, 22:2531 déc. 26, 23:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Berkeley40%
Comparer les plateformes· Miami
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMeilleur global85% de correspondance · vérifié | Faible | 89% | — | 15,4 € | 25,6 k € | il y a 24 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| Manifold MarketsCette page | — | 100% | — | — | — | il y a 12 jours |
Également disponible sur Kalshi
Where will Waymo operate in 2026?
4.0 pts5mo
89%
-3.0pt85%
-4.0pt80%
+7 résultats de plus
49 • Faible qualitéSpread modéréLiquidité élevée
Volume total45,2 k €
Volume 24h15,4 €
KALSHIRègles
If the Waymo service area overlaps with the city limits at all, that's good enough.
- If only a minority of people have access, it will resolved based on whether any of them got this access by luck or signing up early, rather than by being Waymo employees, journalists, or famous.
- If the cars arrive with Waymo employees in them, or even in the driver seats, the answer resolves Yes if i can find any credible evidence of 1 trip where it's plausible the car was doing more than half of the driving work.
- If it's hard to find evidence of any such trips, it'll resolve No.
- When Waymo launches somewhere, that answer will resolve Yes.
- If they suspend service etc, it will still stay a Yes.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$28213 juil.2j de données14 juil.
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If the Waymo service area overlaps with the city limits at all, that's good enough.
- If only a minority of people have access, it will resolved based on whether any of them got this access by luck or signing up early, rather than by being Waymo employees, journalists, or famous.
- If the cars arrive with Waymo employees in them, or even in the driver seats, the answer resolves Yes if i can find any credible evidence of 1 trip where it's plausible the car was doing more than half of the driving work.
- If it's hard to find evidence of any such trips, it'll resolve No.
- When Waymo launches somewhere, that answer will resolve Yes.
- If they suspend service etc, it will still stay a Yes.