Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 68.9%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète4 mai 26, 17:16 UTC31 mars 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China alumina production exceed 85 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Guinea bauxite exports exceed 140 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Year-over-year US Industrial Production exceed -6.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill Year-over-year US Industrial Production exceed -8.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExRègles
This market resolves YES if Indonesia's primary aluminum (smelter output) production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceeds 1.5 million tonnes.
- Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 ESDM monthly output print (which publishes with a ~1-2 month lag) is available before resolution.
- Indonesia is one step further down the supply chain from alumina: bauxite -> alumina -> primary aluminum.
- Domestic primary aluminum capacity comes mostly from Inalum's Kuala Tanjung smelter (~250-300 kt/yr) plus expansion projects under the post-2023 industrial-localisation push.
- Crossing 1.5 Mt for calendar 2027 would represent a meaningful ramp from the ~250 kt 2023 baseline and would suggest the bauxite-to-smelter strategy is producing real material rather than just intermediate alumina.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
