Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 29 oct. 2026, 14:12 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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4
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour hier
Obsolète4 mai 26, 17:15 UTC31 mars 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Indonesia primary aluminum production exceed 1 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Guinea bauxite exports exceed 140 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)
Manifold MarketsAlcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)
Manifold MarketsWill Year-over-year US Industrial Production exceed -6.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill Year-over-year US Industrial Production exceed -8.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExRègles
This market resolves YES if China's alumina (Al2O3) production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceeds 85 million tonnes.
- Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 NBS monthly industrial output print (which publishes with a ~1-2 month lag) is available before resolution.
- China is the world's largest alumina producer, accounting for roughly 60% of global output.
- Annual production has run between 75-82 Mt over 2022-2024 and has tracked aluminium-smelter demand closely.
- Crossing 85 Mt for calendar 2027 would represent meaningful growth from current levels and require either capacity utilisation gains or additional refinery commissioning during 2026-2027.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
