Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 87.9%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
4 mai 26, 17:14 UTC31 mars 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Indonesia primary aluminum production exceed 1 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China alumina production exceed 85 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Indonesia's commissioned alumina refinery capacity exceed 15 Mt/yr on December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsIs most of Wout Van Aert's road cycling success still ahead of him as of October 2023?
Manifold MarketsTaipei Mayor Election Winner
PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceed 140 million tonnes.
- Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 monthly customs print (which publishes with a ~2-month lag) is available before resolution.
- Guinea is the world's largest bauxite exporter, supplying roughly 60% of China's bauxite imports.
- Annual export volume has roughly doubled since 2017 with capacity expansions at Boké province operations (CBG, SMB, GAC) and the Boffa concessions.
- Crossing 140 Mt for calendar 2027 would require sustained ramp from the ~90 Mt 2023 baseline.
- Resolution sources (priority order):