Will "Incriminating misaligned AI models via distil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
IAOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.7%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 minutes
16 mai 26, 21:27 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will risk from misaligned AI be popularly perceived to be greater at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
Manifold MarketsWill more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAssuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?
Manifold MarketsWill a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Incriminating misaligned AI models via distillation is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.