Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 83%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète8 nov. 23, 10:01 UTC2 janv. 35, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer than 365 days before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
YES = if a misaligned AI is the primary cause of death of at least 1% of the population (~81-85M deaths based on current projections) within any 12 month period that ends before 2035.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2035.
- Comment Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : YES = if a misaligned AI is the primary cause of death of at least 1% of the population (~81-85M deaths based on current projections) within any 12 month period that ends before 2035.