Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?
Politique américaineOne-OffTechChineÉchecsSportEntreprises et affaires2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 23 oct. 2026, 22:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 59%
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 48 minutes
En retard12 déc. 25, 15:56 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.
Manifold MarketsWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
PolymarketChina produces 3nm chips before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Nvidia's Blackwell chips be sold in China by the end of 2026?
Futuur[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
The White House based its decision to sell H200s based largely on a prediction that Huawei would be able to produce 'a few million' such chips in 2026.
- Semianalysis previously estimated that they would be able to ship only a few hundred thousand chips.
- Resolves to YES if, as per my best judgment, Huawei has shipped at least 1 million Huawei 910C chips, including any new Huawei chips that are widely considered superior to the 910C.
- Resolves to NO if, as per my best judgment, Huawei fails to do this.
- If it is unclear whether this happened I may extend the market for up to 3 months, after which I will resolve as best I can.
- If Semianalysis confidently reports that this did or did not happen, that will by default be considered sufficient to constitute my best judgment, and if they affirm in advance they will judge this when the time comes then I will agree to defer to them.
