Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 95.8%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète9 avr. 24, 02:49 UTC2 janv. 27, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsChina provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?
Manifold MarketsA plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
PolymarketWill Nvidia's Blackwell chips be sold in China by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20460/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question resolves as Yes if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 domestically designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report.
- It resolves as No otherwise.
- Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour [Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand [Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- [Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment [Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?