Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleJune 30 2026 97.9%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète14 févr. 26, 22:50 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Gavin Newsom is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028, who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Hasan Piker Interview Gavin Newsom in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if Gavin Newsom has the highest % for that date on Polymarket.
- On that date at 3am EST I will check Polymarkets 2028 dem nominee market.https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
- I will use the % displayed.
- If equal with another person, I’ll use the exact yes or no bid prices to decide.
- If still equal, I’ll resolve 50/50.
- If I suspect that is incorrect or something has been manipulated I’ll use the yes and no prices or Kalshi.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Gavin Newsom lead the 2028 Dem Nominee betting on? ?
- Manifold Markets cote June 30 2026 à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Gavin Newsom lead the 2028 Dem Nominee betting on? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Gavin Newsom lead the 2028 Dem Nominee betting on? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will Gavin Newsom lead the 2028 Dem Nominee betting on? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if Gavin Newsom has the highest % for that date on Polymarket.