Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 55.5%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
29 déc. 25, 21:03 UTC1 mars 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Gavin Newsom is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028, who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom lead the 2028 Dem Nominee betting on?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurRègles
The resolution is based on my subjective assessment of his public statements, and I will not trade in this market.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in my judgment, Newsom uses strongly anti-AI rhetoric in public remarks on social media or in speeches and debates before March 2, 2028. "Strongly anti-AI" means rhetoric that goes substantially beyond his current position of supporting responsible AI development—such as calling for major restrictions on AI development, characterizing AI as primarily a threat rather than an opportunity, or advocating for policies that would significantly constrain the AI industry.
- Casual criticism of specific AI applications or calls for narrow guardrails would not qualify, and the positions he takes must be consistent throughout multiple remarks (an offhand comment once wouldn't count).
- Newsom stated in October 2025 that after the 2026 midterm elections, he would give "serious thought" to running in 2028. 55% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say they'd consider voting for Newsom in a 2028 Democratic primary, making him a leading contender.
- Newsom's current AI stance emphasizes responsible development rather than opposition.
