Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection1a
FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 67%
Non 67%Qualité du marché
32 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
831,8 €
Faible liquiditéTraders
15
Commentaires
1
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom be the two frontrunners for the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Manifold MarketsIf Gavin Newsom is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028, who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurAge of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?
PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve based on whether Gavin Newsom is formally declared the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee for the 2028 U.S. presidential election at the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
- Primary Designated Source (PDS): the official roll call of delegates and the certification of the nomination by the Democratic National Committee.
- To count as the nominee, Gavin Newsom must receive the majority of pledged delegate votes required under DNC rules and be officially confirmed as the presidential nominee at the convention.
- Resolution Timing and First-Truth Principle: This market will generally resolve at the conclusion of the 2028 Democratic National Convention once the official nominee is declared.
- Resolution will prioritize the substantive reality of whether Gavin Newsom is or is not the Democratic nominee, not minor technicalities of process.
- Winning sufficient delegate support in primaries or caucuses before the convention (even if Gavin Newsom secures the required delegate majority and the DNC publicly confirms it before the convention) is not enough to resolve this market to "Yes", unless the DNC modifies its procedures and makes a binding announcement of the nomination before the convention takes place.
