Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection1a
FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 79%
Non 79%Qualité du marché
31 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
366,5 €
Faible liquiditéTraders
8
Commentaires
1
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028, who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2024, 2028, or 2032 presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be elected U.S. president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?
Manifold MarketsNY-14 House election: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vote percent
KalshiWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the New York 14th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExRègles
This market will resolve based on whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is formally declared the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee for the 2028 U.S. presidential election at the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
- Primary Designated Source (PDS): the official roll call of delegates and the certification of the nomination by the Democratic National Committee.
- To count as the nominee, Ocasio-Cortez must receive the majority of pledged delegate votes required under DNC rules and be officially confirmed as the presidential nominee at the convention.
- Resolution Timing and First-Truth Principle: This market will generally resolve at the conclusion of the 2028 Democratic National Convention once the official nominee is declared.
- Resolution will prioritize the substantive reality of whether Ocasio-Cortez is or is not the Democratic nominee, not minor technicalities of process.
- Winning sufficient delegate support in primaries or caucuses before the convention (even if she secures the required delegate majority and the DNC publicly confirms it before the convention) is not enough to resolve this market to "Yes", unless the DNC modifies its procedures and makes a binding announcement of the nomination before the convention takes place.
