KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before Oct 1, 2027 74%En tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
40 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
2,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
6.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
7 avr. 26, 14:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketWill Hasan Piker Interview Gavin Newsom in 2026?
Manifold MarketsGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom complete his second term as governor of California?
Manifold MarketsWhen will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiRègles
If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 the named outcome, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 606,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 721 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 411,2 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Oct 1, 2027 à 74% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 the named outcome, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.