Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 80%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 minutes
20 janv. 26, 22:37 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Martin Kleppmann (author of Designing Data-Intensive Applications) argues that AI will bring formal verification into the software engineering mainstream.
- His thesis: LLMs are getting good at writing proof scripts, which could dramatically reduce the cost of formal verification—historically prohibitive (the seL4 microkernel required 20 person-years and 200,000 lines of Isabelle for 8,700 lines of C).
- Key formal verification languages include Lean, Coq/Rocq, Isabelle, Agda, F*, and Dafny.
- Currently, these are niche tools used primarily in academia and specialized industrial applications (cryptographic protocol stacks, verified compilers, microkernels).
- This market tests whether AI-driven improvements will translate to widespread adoption within ~5 years.
- Resolution Criteria:
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $74,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- 180-199+20.0pt54.9%
- 200-219-6.0pt36.3%
- 220-239-7.5pt6.9%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $73,500 or above+18.0pt98%
- $73,000 or above+13.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes91.6%
- No8.4%
- Volume total
- 244,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 243,3 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 17, 2026?
- Minneapolis+68.0pt99%
- Miami+22.0pt99%
- Houston+49.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 236,3 k €
KALSHINasdaq-100 price on Sep 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 29,220 or above99%
- 28,810 or above98%
- 28,860 or above98%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 206,1 k €
- Volume 24h
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Martin Kleppmann (author of Designing Data-Intensive Applications) argues that AI will bring formal verification into the software engineering mainstream.