Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
One-OffIA4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète29 mars 25, 20:45 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
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KalshiRègles
https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax
- This is obviously a very ambiguous and subjective question, I'd rather have an imperfect market than none
- Close date extends indefinitely until the answer to this is clear.
- "Central" is a high bar.
- Example: Inventing a better interpretability tool or a better method of reinforcement learning isn't enough to resolve this market YES, even if they're genuinely better than the alternatives and everyone adopts them.
- The most central YES resolution is is if their "organic alignment" works and is adopted by everyone, but it being a part of a future widely adopted alignment solution, or being widely accepted by AI safety as an important alignment innovation but not used, would work too.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax