Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
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Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Obsolète29 mars 25, 20:45 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?
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PolymarketRègles
https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax
- This is obviously a very ambiguous and subjective question, I'd rather have an imperfect market than none
- Close date extends indefinitely until the answer to this is clear.
- "Central" is a high bar.
- Example: Inventing a better interpretability tool or a better method of reinforcement learning isn't enough to resolve this market YES, even if they're genuinely better than the alternatives and everyone adopts them.
- The most central YES resolution is is if their "organic alignment" works and is adopted by everyone, but it being a part of a future widely adopted alignment solution, or being widely accepted by AI safety as an important alignment innovation but not used, would work too.