Will "Emergent Misalignment: Narrow finetuning can ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffIA3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 04:28 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 75.8%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète13 juin 25, 22:19 UTC1 févr. 27, 00:00 UTC
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Règles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Emergent Misalignment: Narrow finetuning can produce broadly misaligned LLMs is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
