Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.4%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète12 mai 26, 19:32 UTC1 janv. 28, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Tetra read a book in Toki Pona by the end of 2026?
Manifold Marketsbefore 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?
Manifold MarketsWill 5 or more people comment here that they know how to speak Toki Pona?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if Duolingo launches a public Toki Pona course on its app or website before 2028-01-01 00:00 UTC.
- A public beta or public preview counts if ordinary users can access the course without a private invite.
- A waitlist, incubator placeholder, job listing, blog post, social-media announcement, forum discussion, or third-party/non-Duolingo Toki Pona course does not count unless the Duolingo course itself becomes publicly accessible.
- A course under a translated or alternate title counts if Duolingo clearly presents it as Toki Pona.
- Resolution sources: Duolingo course directory/app, official Duolingo blog/social posts, and reliable coverage that points to an actual public course.
- Toki Pona is a constructed language; this market was created for soweliSon's conlang market bounty.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+65.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-29.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-6.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 622,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 579,5 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+41.0pt99%
- Houston+62.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+4.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $74,750 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 411,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 411,6 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt33.3%
- 160-179+5.0pt28.6%
- 200-219-4.0pt15.2%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $73,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,2 M €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+25.0pt87.3%
- 65-89-10.0pt12.8%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 résultats de plus
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
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- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Next James Bond actor?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Duolingo launch a public Toki Pona course by the end of 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Duolingo launch a public Toki Pona course by the end of 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Duolingo launch a public Toki Pona course by the end of 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will Duolingo launch a public Toki Pona course by the end of 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if Duolingo launches a public Toki Pona course on its app or website before 2028-01-01 00:00 UTC.