Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.4%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète18 mai 26, 15:31 UTC31 déc. 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Tetra read a book in Toki Pona by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Duolingo launch a public Toki Pona course by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill 5 or more people comment here that they know how to speak Toki Pona?
Manifold MarketsNH-01 Democratic nominee?
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KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if any individual delivers a speech at least partially in the Toki Pona language during an official United Nations session, assembly, or conference before January 1, 2035.
- For the purposes of this market, a "speech" is defined as a formal oral address delivered to a UN body.
- A part of the speech must be identifiable as Toki Pona by linguistics experts or through official UN transcripts/records.
- If no such speech occurs by the deadline, or if the language used is determined to be a different constructed language, the market resolves to NO.
- Toki Pona is a constructed language (conlang) created by Canadian linguist Sonja Lang, first published in 2001.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+82.9pt100%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+3.5pt45.5%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona? sera-t-il résolu ?
- before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2034.
- Comment before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria