Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 66.8%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète9 sept. 26, 12:55 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
KalshiWill the White House Ballroom really be a ballroom?
Manifold MarketsWhite House ballroom completed before the end of Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Vivek Ramaswamy Hold an Official Position in Trump’s White House?
Manifold MarketsWill SCOTUS end the White House ballroom injunction?
KalshiWhen will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2028 United States presidential election.
- It resolves to NO if any other candidate (Republican, third-party, or independent) wins the election.
- The outcome will be determined by the official certification of the Electoral College votes by the U.S. Congress, typically scheduled for January 2029.
- In the event of a contingent election in the House of Representatives, the winner of that contingent election will determine the resolution.
- Reliable major news sources reporting the certified winner—such as the Associated Press or Reuters—will be used for verification.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.5pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 Md €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+44.0pt57.4%
- Nicolás Maduro-40.9pt41.6%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will democrats take back the white house in 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 67% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will democrats take back the white house in 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will democrats take back the white house in 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will democrats take back the white house in 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria