Will democracy survive in second Trump administration?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 80.3%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète9 oct. 26, 01:34 UTC20 janv. 29, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will all type of vaccines be abolished during the second Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsWill there be another covid-like pandemic during second Trump administration?
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Manifold MarketsPeak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
KalshiWhat will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if democracy in the United States is deemed to have survived the second Trump administration.
- It will resolve to NO if any of the following events occur prior to the end of the administration (scheduled for January 20, 2029):
- No Presidential Election: The United States fails to hold a nationwide presidential election during the year 2028.
- EIU Downgrade: In the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index report covering the year 2028 (typically published in early 2029), the United States' classification is downgraded to a "Hybrid regime" or "Authoritarian regime" (overall score below 6.00).
- V-Dem Downgrade: In the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute’s annual Democracy Report covering the year 2028 (typically published in early 2029), the United States is classified as either an "Electoral autocracy" or "Closed autocracy".
