Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 88.1%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète25 janv. 25, 20:32 UTC2 janv. 27, 09:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?
Manifold MarketsPharmaceutical TV ads banned in US by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
If any part of their ecosystem is banned - chat app, use of model weights, etc - this resolves as yes
- Update 2025-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Government agencies or branches banning DeepSeek will not be considered as part of the resolution.
- The focus is on a wider national ban beyond government agencies/branches.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will DeepSeek be banned in US before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will DeepSeek be banned in US before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will DeepSeek be banned in US before 2027? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will DeepSeek be banned in US before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If any part of their ecosystem is banned - chat app, use of model weights, etc - this resolves as yes