Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s vote total exceed Peltola's winning margin in Alaska's Senate race?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20263j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59%
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8
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 58 minutes
En retard31 oct. 26, 05:24 UTC6 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsAlaska Senate election: Mary Peltola vote percent (1st Round)
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in the official certified results of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election, candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s total number of votes strictly exceeds the margin of victory by which Mary Peltola defeats incumbent Dan S. Sullivan.
- The margin of victory is defined as Peltola's total votes minus Dan S. Sullivan's total votes in the decisive round that determines the winner under Alaska's ranked-choice voting tabulation (or round 1 if won outright).
- This market resolves NO if:
- Mary Peltola wins the election, but her margin of victory over Dan S. Sullivan is greater than or equal to Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s round 1 vote total (or total votes received prior to elimination).
- Mary Peltola does not win the election (i.e., Dan S. Sullivan or another candidate wins, or Peltola withdraws/is disqualified), meaning there is no winning margin for her.
