Will the Fake Dan Sullivan Effect the Results of the Alaska Senate Election?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 202628j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72.4%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète29 oct. 26, 05:44 UTC1 déc. 26, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Impostor Dan Sullivan finish third in the Alaska Senate election?
Manifold MarketsDan J. Sullivan charged by January 31?
PolymarketWill Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s vote total exceed Peltola's winning margin in Alaska's Senate race?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market is binary and resolves based on whether the presence of candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. demonstrably changes the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election according to official tabulated results from the Alaska Division of Elections.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to YES if the following conditions is satisfied:
- Ranked-Choice / Margin Outcome: Incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan does not win the election, AND the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. exceed the final margin of victory between the winning candidate and Dan S. Sullivan
- If incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan wins re-election, or if Mary Peltola (or another challenger) wins by a margin greater than the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. without an election reversal via court order, the market will resolve to NO.
- Note: The market creator may modify or clarify the numerical threshold or specific counterfactual definition before election day.
