Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?
ÉconomieOne-OffChinaMacro & Economy4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 61.3%
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 minutes
10 janv. 22, 23:14 UTC1 janv. 31, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will World Bank classify India as Upper-Middle Income?
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Manifold MarketsWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in 2030?
KalshiUS nominal GDP growth in 2030
KalshiUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Jan 12, 11:39am: Data depends on the World Bank, using their numbers for both China and the upper middle-income average. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=XT
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 612,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 61% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Jan 12, 11:39am: Data depends on the World Bank, using their numbers for both China and the upper middle-income average. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=XT