Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90.8%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
21 déc. 23, 22:29 UTC1 janv. 50, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolution criteria here are fairly loose—the birth of a profession relatively recognizable as similar to that of the “Blade Runner” in the 2049 film will satisfy here.
- Does not need to be an embodied AGI that is the runner or the hunter (and the former can of course also be human), but AGI needs to have been widely recognized as “invented” and active before 2049 for this market to be possibly resolved “yes.” (Bug hunting for OpenAI in 2024 does not even remotely count as a “yes.”)
- Haven’t seen the movie yet? You’re missing out! Check out the trailer here:
- (https://www.youtube.com/embed/Icx4xul9LEE?si=V3Y6yH8RpaNve5r0)
