Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 minutes
10 juin 26, 05:06 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiWho will Bernie Sanders endorse for president in 2028 dem primary?
Manifold MarketsWho will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?
KalshiWill "On today's panel with Bernie Sanders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill AOC run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Bernie Sanders officially declares his candidacy for President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle on or before Election Day, November 7, 2028.
- An official run requires at least one of the following:
- Filing a Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
- A formal, public announcement of his candidacy (e.g., via an official campaign launch video, press conference, or official press release).
- Forming an exploratory committee, being draft-campaigned by external organizations, or speculative media reporting will not suffice.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria