Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 77.9%
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète28 avr. 24, 11:11 UTC31 déc. 45, 19:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Currently all prion diseases are considered fatal and incurable.
- I'll resolve yes if, by the end of 31 December 2045, there's a human being who was previously infected with prion disease (previously fatal and incurable) and has been cured of it, according to widespread medical consensus.
- Even if there are lingering side effects, I will resolve YES if the consensus is that death of said disease is no longer inevitable for that person.
- ("Inevitable" as in "the person is certain to die of said disease unless something else kills them first")
- If a human has definitely been cured but the relevant medical intervention is hard or impossible to replicate, it's enough to resolve YES anyway.
- Something like the Berlin patient (but for a prion disease instead of HIV) would trigger a YES resolution.
