Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 84.3%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète23 déc. 25, 10:08 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Green Party of England and Wales consistently poll >=20% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich New Zealand political party leaders will be incumbent on the next Election Day?
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Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
Consistently = enough that Politico's Poll of Polls UK (smooth view) shows any party polling at greater than or equal to 35%, for 14 days in a row, according to the day-by-day hover tool.
- Excepting any obvious data / charting errors on Politico's end.
- All 14 days must fall within 2025 I.e. the streak cannot start on Dec 31st 2025.
- Politico do take time to update their charts, so any 14 day period must remain in place for 14 days after it completes.
- If for any reason Politico's Poll of Polls ceases to function then the backup metric is Wikipedia's UK Polling chart.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Consistently = enough that Politico's Poll of Polls UK (smooth view) shows any party polling at greater than or equal to 35%, for 14 days in a row, according to the day-by-day hover tool.