Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 84.8%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète23 déc. 25, 10:08 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Green Party of England and Wales consistently poll >=20% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
Manifold MarketsWhich New Zealand political party leaders will be incumbent on the next Election Day?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk create a political party in the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurBy 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Serbia?
PolymarketRègles
Consistently = enough that Politico's Poll of Polls UK (smooth view) shows any party polling at greater than or equal to 35%, for 14 days in a row, according to the day-by-day hover tool.
- Excepting any obvious data / charting errors on Politico's end.
- All 14 days must fall within 2025 I.e. the streak cannot start on Dec 31st 2025.
- Politico do take time to update their charts, so any 14 day period must remain in place for 14 days after it completes.
- If for any reason Politico's Poll of Polls ceases to function then the backup metric is Wikipedia's UK Polling chart.
