Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Christopher Luxon 93.7%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète31 oct. 23, 22:37 UTC1 nov. 26, 10:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Swedish political party will successfully form a government next?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk create a political party in the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurBy 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiRègles
Resolves to all leaders of a party represented in Parliament.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+81.8pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-81.6pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.7pt0%
- Volume total
- 957,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 760,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which New Zealand political party leaders will be incumbent on the next Election Day? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Christopher Luxon à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which New Zealand political party leaders will be incumbent on the next Election Day? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which New Zealand political party leaders will be incumbent on the next Election Day? doit être résolu le 1 novembre 2026.
- Comment Which New Zealand political party leaders will be incumbent on the next Election Day? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to all leaders of a party represented in Parliament.