Elon Musk crée-t-il un parti politique avant la fin de la présidence de Trump ?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.4%
Prévisionnistes
151
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète11 juin 25, 05:57 UTC21 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiWill Elon Musk create a political party in the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurRègles
This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).
- The party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.
- A public announcement reported by credible news sources (e.g. NYT, WSJ, Reuters, CNN, BBC, Bloomberg, AP) or official filings with the FEC will count.
- Speculation, jokes, or offhand remarks do not count unless followed by a formal announcement or filing.
- Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES based on the public announcement or FEC filing of a new political party intended to run candidates in U.S. elections, regardless of whether:
- Any candidates ultimately get on the ballot.
