Elon Musk crée-t-il un parti politique avant la fin de la présidence de Trump ?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.3%
Prévisionnistes
93
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète11 juin 25, 05:57 UTC21 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump OR Marco Rubio visit Cuba before Trump’s presidency ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich political party wins the US presidency in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk create a political party in the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
KalshiWill the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump's Presidency?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).
- The party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.
- A public announcement reported by credible news sources (e.g. NYT, WSJ, Reuters, CNN, BBC, Bloomberg, AP) or official filings with the FEC will count.
- Speculation, jokes, or offhand remarks do not count unless followed by a formal announcement or filing.
- Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES based on the public announcement or FEC filing of a new political party intended to run candidates in U.S. elections, regardless of whether:
- Any candidates ultimately get on the ballot.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Elon Musk crée-t-il un parti politique avant la fin de la présidence de Trump ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Elon Musk crée-t-il un parti politique avant la fin de la présidence de Trump ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Elon Musk crée-t-il un parti politique avant la fin de la présidence de Trump ? doit être résolu le 21 janvier 2029.
- Comment Elon Musk crée-t-il un parti politique avant la fin de la présidence de Trump ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).