Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 65.3%
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11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
4 janv. 26, 09:35 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I ever make a real world purchase with a crypto currency?
Manifold MarketsWill there be real-world protests in the US of at least 1,000 people against AI art by the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if, by Jan 1, 2028:
- a publicly documented benchmark exists that evaluates physical (non-simulated) household tasks;
- tasks have explicit success/failure criteria;
- results are intended for comparison across different robots or systems (not a single-vendor demo).
- Resolves NO otherwise.