Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.6%
Prévisionnistes
63
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 36 minutes
20 janv. 26, 01:18 UTC4 nov. 26, 02:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?
KalshiTrump declares nationwide martial law?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketHow many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRègles
Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if:
- Martial law is active during voting hours
- It has been declared by someone with authority to do so
- This applies to any part of America
- The declaration can be for any reason
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
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+35 résultats de plus
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any part of America be under martial law during midterm elections? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any part of America be under martial law during midterm elections? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any part of America be under martial law during midterm elections? doit être résolu le 4 novembre 2026.
- Comment Will any part of America be under martial law during midterm elections? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if: