Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.6%
Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète6 avr. 25, 00:18 UTC20 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?
KalshiWill Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?
Manifold MarketsTrump declares election interference national emergency by which date?
PolymarketTrump declares AGI before the Pope?
Manifold MarketsWill any part of America be under martial law during midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRègles
-Must occur by the end of the current term: January 20th, 2029.
- -Must be generally declared nationwide, or at least across a large region (it's okay if there are specific areas exempted from it, for example).
- -Must be declared by the Trump administration.
- If Trump is impeached and the next president declares martial law this will not resolve YES.
- -Invoking the Insurrection Act does not automatically equate to declaring martial law nationwide, but if the Insurrection Act was invoked and its powers used in such a way that consensus media reporting characterized the deployment as "declaring martial law" then yes, this could resolve YES.
- -Will not be resolved YES on a technicality, like "Trump declares a national day of mourning and martial law is declared across the country for 1 second for some archaic legal purpose" or something silly like this, idk what form this might take, but I reserve the right to not resolve YES based on some technicality like this.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Trump declares nationwide martial law? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Trump declares nationwide martial law? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Trump declares nationwide martial law? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Trump declares nationwide martial law? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : -Must occur by the end of the current term: January 20th, 2029.