Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 81%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 minutes
28 juil. 25, 22:16 UTC31 déc. 59, 23:15 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has publicly, explicitly, and unambiguously declared that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been achieved before the reigning Pope makes an equivalent declaration.
- Resolution criteria
- What counts as a declaration?
- A clear, public statement (speech, press release, published interview, or official post on a verified social‑media account) asserting that humanity has created an artificial intelligence with capabilities broadly equal to—or exceeding—those of an average human across most cognitive domains.
- Mere claims of “powerful AI,” “superintelligence on the horizon,” or marketing hype do not suffice; the speaker must explicitly confirm that AGI already exists.
- Evidence standard