Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 81%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète28 juil. 25, 22:16 UTC31 déc. 59, 23:15 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has publicly, explicitly, and unambiguously declared that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been achieved before the reigning Pope makes an equivalent declaration.
- Resolution criteria
- What counts as a declaration?
- A clear, public statement (speech, press release, published interview, or official post on a verified social‑media account) asserting that humanity has created an artificial intelligence with capabilities broadly equal to—or exceeding—those of an average human across most cognitive domains.
- Mere claims of “powerful AI,” “superintelligence on the horizon,” or marketing hype do not suffice; the speaker must explicitly confirm that AGI already exists.
- Evidence standard
Marchés ouverts
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- J.D. Vance50%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Trump declares AGI before the Pope? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 81% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Trump declares AGI before the Pope? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Trump declares AGI before the Pope? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2059.
- Comment Trump declares AGI before the Pope? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has publicly, explicitly, and unambiguously declared that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been achieved before the reigning Pope makes an equivalent declaration.