Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 61.5%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète23 févr. 26, 02:14 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?
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KalshiWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if any country (population >1 million) enacts legislation that explicitly taxes the use of robots, AI systems, or automation equipment, or imposes a dedicated levy on firms that automate jobs, by December 31, 2027.
- What counts: A tax specifically targeting automation/AI/robots — not general capital gains taxes, corporate taxes, or investment tax credit changes.
- South Korea's 2017 reduction of automation investment tax credits would NOT count as it was a credit reduction, not a dedicated tax.
- What doesn't count: Proposals, bills that don't pass, or taxes on AI companies (as opposed to taxes on the act of automating).
- Baseline: As of February 2026, no country has enacted a dedicated robot/automation tax.
- The EU rejected a robot tax proposal in 2017.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 62% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if any country (population >1 million) enacts legislation that explicitly taxes the use of robots, AI systems, or automation equipment, or imposes a dedicated levy on firms that automate jobs, by December 31, 2027.