Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète10 févr. 26, 16:14 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiOpen Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release Mythos?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic release Opus 6?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if Anthropic posts an open-source or open-weights model in 2026.
- It doesn't have to be big, and it doesn't have to be new (releasing, say, Opus 3 still counts).
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if Anthropic posts an open-source or open-weights model in 2026.