Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.6%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète10 févr. 26, 16:14 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026
Manifold MarketsOpen vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 24, 2026
KalshiOpen Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiWill Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if Anthropic posts an open-source or open-weights model in 2026.
- It doesn't have to be big, and it doesn't have to be new (releasing, say, Opus 3 still counts).
