Will another UN member state leader holds any other UN state leader or former leader in captivity in 2026?
Politique américaineOne-OffAmérique latine2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 16:20 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète5 janv. 26, 02:05 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on pairwise combinations of captors and captives:
- If the same leader holds multiple different leaders captive, each new pairing counts as a separate instance
- If a successor to a previously captured leader is held (and sufficiently well-established), that counts as a new instance
- Holding former leaders (e.g., former U.S. presidents) also counts
- Capturing multiple subordinates or acting officials under one regime does not clearly satisfy the criteria
