Prévision communautaire actuelle
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11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète9 sept. 26, 09:40 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a human mission successfully land on the Moon again by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiRègles
Several robotic lunar landers are targeting touchdown attempts in 2026, including Blue Origin's Blue Moon Mark 1 (early 2026, south pole near Shackleton Crater), Intuitive Machines' IM-3 Nova-C lander (H1 2026, Reiner Gamma region), and Astrobotic's Griffin-1 (NET July 2026, south pole near Mons Mouton).
- Other missions (e.g. additional CLPS or international landers) could also attempt landings during the year.
- This market resolves YES if at least one uncrewed or crewed spacecraft achieves a soft/successful landing on the lunar surface at any point during 2026 (any mission, any country or company — not limited to the ones named above).
- Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if a credible source (NASA, the mission operator, or major spaceflight news outlets such as Spaceflight Now, SpaceNews, or Space.com) confirms a spacecraft has landed on the Moon intact and functional (i.e., not a hard-impact/crash landing) between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
- A landing counts regardless of whether the mission achieves its full objectives afterward — the bar is a successful touchdown, not mission longevity.
