Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.9%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète15 mai 26, 17:35 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich Scottish Spaceport will see the first successful orbital launch?
Manifold MarketsWho will conduct the last orbital launch of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will conduct the first orbital launch of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketFrance declares state of emergency by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a European-designed and/or European-operated launch vehicle reaches orbit before January 1st 2040, with every propulsive stage used on that flight having previously flown on an earlier spaceflight.
- “European” means the vehicle is primarily developed or operated by an organisation headquartered in Europe, including ESA member states, the UK, EU countries, or European commercial launch companies.
- A flight counts even if the stages are not recovered again afterward, as long as all stages used to reach orbit had already flown before.
- Test flights count if they reach orbit.
- Suborbital flights do not count.
- Resolves NO if no such flight has occurred before January 1st 2040.